The overwhelming feat of a Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) was mostly unexpected, though seems to be a approach outcome of a anti-incumbency call opposite a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) supervision during a Centre and a unhappiness with a Left Democratic Front (LDF) supervision in a State.
A related growth was a Supreme Court outcome permitting women of all age groups entrance into a Sabarimala church and a State government’s preference to exercise it.
The UDF swept 19 of a 20 seats in a State. The LDF was cramped to a remaining one seat.
In a survey, some-more than 6 of each 10 respondents voiced restlessness with a opening of a Union government. Four of each 10 were entirely dissatisfied. This was a essential cause in last a electoral outcome. Consequently, a vast series of respondents upheld Congress boss Rahul Gandhi for Prime Minister — 36 commission points aloft than a support for Narendra Modi.
Table 1: Complete restlessness with a Central government’s opening was 4 times aloft than finish restlessness with State government’s work
However, a many vicious choosing emanate was a Sabarimala verdict. The State government’s preference combined utterly a stir, with a BJP heading a protests anticipating to renovate this into votes in a favour. The UDF tactfully followed a soothing process by protesting though violence.
In a choosing campaign, a BJP focussed on a Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta constituencies. In 2014, a BJP mislaid a Thiruvananthapuram chair by a slight margin. This time, a claimant mislaid by over one lakh votes. In Pathanamthitta, where a Sabarimala church is situated, another pivotal BJP personality came third.
Table 2: Prime Minister Preference of Kerala voters
While tighten to half a respondents in a consult did discuss a Sabarimala emanate as a vicious cause (46% pronounced it had been possibly a really vicious or rather vicious voting emanate for them), a view opposite a Supreme Court visualisation did not foster a BJP though a UDF. Nearly dual of each 3 respondents were opposite to a Supreme Court verdict.
Moreover, scarcely 3 of each 5 electorate voiced restlessness with a approach a LDF rubbed a issue.
Table 3: Opinion on a Supreme Court visualisation on Sabarimala church entry
Close to half a respondents really strongly disagreed with a judgment. The advantage out of this criticism went in foster of a UDF rather than a BJP, as a Congress-led alliance, in a way, took a line a BJP had primarily taken and also since of a unhappiness with a NDA supervision during a Centre. The consult found a UDF to be removing a larger support (35%) than a BJP (30%) among Hindu respondents who pronounced they were entirely opposite a verdict. Muslims and Christians too were found to be some-more expected to be opposite to a visualisation than support it and some-more expected to be discontented with how a State supervision rubbed a issue.
A clever anti-BJP view in Kerala led to minority consolidation.
Table 4: Satisfaction with LDF government’s doing of Sabarimala issue
The outrageous victories of a UDF in a constituencies that had a extrinsic participation of a BJP and in a minority-dominated areas prove this factor. Two of each 3 Muslim and Christian electorate seem to have voted for a UDF.
The consult indicates that some-more than half a respondents felt that a arise of a BJP in Kerala was bad for a State.
Table 5: Vote by castes and communities
(K.M. Sajad Ibrahim is Professor and Head, Department of Political Science, University of Kerala)